Wage bill as of May 2013. At present, Arsenal have moved past Chelsea to third highest in the league.

John Burn Murdoch and Gavin Jackson at FT.com have posted up an interesting set of statistical articles as part of their Baseline series. The present one explores the correlation between wage bill and league performance on the final league position. Their results are based on date collated and analyzed from 1995 onwards till the current season. As expected, initial league positions have very little to do with the final day position. However, six matches into the season, predictability increased to 47% but an even more powerful predictor was wage bill with odds increasing to 67%. It was only in the 13th match, league position overtook wage bill as a factor in determining that season’s success. On average a side moved 3.4 positions up or down after the 6th game to the final 38th game.

Liverpool fans will be consoled that they have an advantage in the fifth highest wage bill. Which means there are 7 more matches to kick it up from 13th position before league positions start locking in. Unless Luis Suarez is a complete outlier which might be the case. For another interesting analysis, the authors show how Raheem Sterling, about the most exciting English footballer in a considerable period, improved significantly as an unmistakable scoring threat moving from the flanks to a more central location.