Ecuador’s win against Costa Rica has put them up at the top of Group A on goal differential ahead of Germany, +5 to +3. For both England and Germany to avoid meeting each other, they have to top their groups or both take the second spot. England right now are at the top of Group B with 6 points and +3 GD. Sweden with its win today moved to second spot with 4 points and a +1 GD.
Germany meets Ecuador in its final match in Group A. If they draw or lose they take the second spot and a potential meeting with England who are in line to top Group in the round of 16.
England’s match against Sweden starts later. If Germany wins then England just needs to play out a draw. But if Germany loses or draws then England will have to figure out whether a win against Sweden is worth it.
I don’t think so. As manipulative as this reasoning sounds, you don’t want to see the two rivals head to head this early. England has gotten the worst of the exchanges and has never won against Germany in the World Cup since 1966. Germany has won all three games that have gone to a penalty shootout converting 14 out of the 15. The English have been abysmal losing both games converting 6 out of 10.
Imagine the fragile psyche of the English if they lose to the Germans. The self loathing in the media on the years of futility. The Eddie Izzard sketches parodying the English team. Basil Fawlty’s attempts to make amends will come to nought. Steve McLaren, the coach in waiting and Sven’s assistant will start his career with this giant chip on the shoulder.
If Germany loses, then only Angela Merkel can save Klinsi’s head from the Bayern Munich cabal. And as hosts the embarrasment of bowing out early.
Imagine the potential for hooliganism this early in the World Cup. A tip of the hat to German security which has been examplary but this matchup might test their limits.
An Ecuador- England and a Germany- Sweden showdown sounds much more palatable. Of course, if both teams top their groups, then the point is moot.